TY - JOUR
TI - Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making
AU - Cook, C
AU - Inayatullah, S
AU - Burgman, M
AU - Sutherland, W
AU - Wintle, B
T2 - Trends in Ecology & Evolution
AB - Advanced warning of potential new opportunities and threats related to biodiversity allows decision-makers to act strategically to maximize benefits or minimize costs. Strategic foresight explores possible futures, their consequences for decisions, and the actions that promote more desirable futures. Foresight tools, such as horizon scanning and scenario planning, are increasingly used by governments and business for long-term strategic planning and capacity building. These tools are now being applied in ecology, although generally not as part of a comprehensive foresight strategy. We highlight several ways foresight could play a more significant role in environmental decisions by: monitoring existing problems, highlighting emerging threats, identifying promising new opportunities, testing the resilience of policies, and defining a research agenda.
DA - 2014/09//
PY - 2014
VL - 29
IS - 9
SP - 531
EP - 541
UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534714001566
DO - 10.1016/j.tree.2014.07.005
LA - English
KW - Human Dimensions
KW - Environmental Impact Assessment
KW - Legal & Policy
ER -