Abstract
The growing number of end-of-life (EOL) wind blades could further strain US landfills or be a valuable composite materials source, depending on stakeholders’ behaviors. Technical solutions based on circular economy (CE) principles have been proposed but are not guaranteed to solve the issue of EOL management. Transitioning to CE implies changing how business models, supply chains, and behaviors deal with products and waste. A spatially resolved agent-based modeling combined with a machine-learning metamodel shows that including behavioral factors is crucial to designing effective policies. Logistical barriers and transportation costs significantly affect the results: lowering blade shredding costs by a third before transportation makes EOL blades a source of valuable materials, decreasing the 2050 cumulative landfill rate below 50%. In another scenario, parameter settings simulating policy interventions aiming at boosting early adoption incites new social norms favorable to recycling, lowering the cumulative landfill rate below 10%.